Earth’s Climate Enters Uncharted Waters

antarcticaGreenland-Antarctica Ice Melt: Earth Climate Entering Uncharted Territory

Climate scientists predict rise in Earth’s temperature. With the exception of massive volcanic events and asteroid impacts, no geological record exists for rises of greenhouse gases (GHG) (CO2, CH4, N2O) at rates as high as the rate of 1 to 2 ppm CO2/year since the second half of the 20th century.

By distinction from Mars (Temperature -113 C to 0 C ; thin atmosphere pressure of 0.01 Bar at surface; CO2 ~95.3%) or Venus (T~450 C ; 90 Bar at surface; atmosphere of CO2 & sulphuric acid), the modulation of Earth surface temperature by greenhouse gases (GHG) prevents its freezing to -18 C, thus allowing the presence of liquid water and thereby of life.

climate change
Figure 1. Variations in CO2, temperatures and sea levels through the 600,000 years of the glacial-interglacial record deduced from Greenland and Antarctic ice cores. http://www.columbia.edu/~jeh1/mailings/2011/20110118_MilankovicPaper.pdf The upper diagram plots temperature and radiative forcing anomalies in Watt/m2. Note the increase in radiative forcing by >2 Watt/m2 since the 18th century. The lower plot correlates CO2 with sea level changes.

The connections between the level of green house gases, troposphere temperatures, formation or melting of ice and therefore variations in sea level (Figure 1) are in the core of climate science, including future climate projections [IPCC 2007]. The IPCC is the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change.

Changes in sea level (SL), consequent on the cumulative outcome of thermal expansion or contraction of water and the melting or freezing of ice sheets and mountain glaciers (in the long term SL is also affected by uplift or sinking of continents and ocean floor), represent a definitive measure of variations in Earth climate.

Temperature controlled variations in SL, from +75 meters to -120 meters relative to the present, have resulted in different global land-sea configurations, from flooded Cretaceous (145-65 million years-ago) continents to extended continental shelves during the Pleistocene (1.8-0 m.y.-ago) ice ages (Figures 1, 4).

The measurement of past sea levels from ice core and sediment proxy data and of recent and present levels using tide gauges and laser ranging satellite, allows oceanographers to reconstruct past SL (Figure 1, 4) and near-past SL (Figure 2), demonstrating close connections between atmospheric CO2 levels, temperatures and sea levels (Figure 1, 4).

The data indicate an extreme development in the atmosphere-ocean-cryosphere system since the mid-18th century, including:

  • climate change
    Figure 2. Rate of sea-level rise obtained from tide gauge observations (red line, smoothed as described in the Fig. 2 legend) and computed from global mean temperature from Eq. 1 (dark blue line). The light blue band indicates the statistical error (one SD) of the simple linear prediction (upper plot). Sea level relative to 1990 obtained from observations (red line) and computed from global mean temperature (lower plot). The red squares mark the unsmoothed, annual sea- level data

    A rise in atmospheric CO2 levels from~280 ppm prior to 1750 to 391 ppm at present, i.e. near-40% above maximum levels of the last 800,000 years (Figure 1, 4).

  • A concomitant rise in atmospheric methane levels from~700to~1700 parts per billion (ppb).
  • A rise in atmospheric temperatures, most particularly since about 1910 , the mean global level rising by 0.56 C between 1975-2009 and polar temperatures rising by between 2 C and 4 C during this period, driving sea ice melt (Arctic) and continental ice sheet melt (Greenland, Antarctica).
  • A rise in the rate of sea-level rise (1850-1970: ~0.11cm/year; 1975- 2009: ~0.34 cm/year), amounting to a total of ~20 cm since 1870 (Figure 2).

Attempts at estimating future melting of continental ice sheets and thus sea level rise vary between authors. The IPCC-2007 report suggests sea level rise in the range of 0.18-0.59 meter by 2100 but this is qualified by likely underestimate of contributions from ice sheet melt, as ice sheet physics were not understood well enough [IPCC 2007].

Higher estimates followed, including 0.5-1.4 meters above 1990 levels by 2100, assuming a linear proportionally constant rate of 0.34 cm per year per C. Vermeer and Rahmstorf (2009) [Vermeer and Rahmstorf, 2009. Vermeer: Global sea level linked to global temperature, Proc. Natl.Acad. Sci., 106, 21527-21532] update their estimate to 0.75-1.9 meters while Alley, 2100 [Alley, R.B., 2010: Ice in the hot box—What adaptation challenges might we face? 2010 AGU Fall Meeting, December 17, U52A-02.] estimates about 1 meter by 2100. Similar-scale estimates are made by Pfeffer et al. 2008 [6] who suggested a possible 0.8 meters and an upper limit of 2.0 meters by 2100.

Note most projections end by 2100, a time when grandchildren and their children are supposed to live?

Published by the LA Progressive on March 18, 2011
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