GOP Rolls Dice on Immigration Reform

gop latino outreachRecently there have been a series of high profile endorsements for comprehensive immigration reform from the Republican Party. Immediately after the November 2012 election Bobby Jindal made a plea for more civility and and less stupidity on the immigration issue. Before too long, it was the Gang of 8 in the U.S. Senate which included four prominent Republican Senators who introduced their framework for an immigration bill.  Then the RNC released a lengthy report calling for stronger outreach to Latinos, starting by passing an immigration reform bill. And now Tea Party favorite, Senator Rand Paul, has changed his own position and is now in favor of comprehensive immigration reform.  Can Republicans really draw more Latino support if they back a path to citizenship? The answer is unequivocally ‘Yes’. Or if they fail to support immigration reform with a path to citizenship, they could do even worse than Mitt Romney’s all-time low among Latino voters in 2012.

Even President Obama acknowledged that the Republican Party can make gains with Latino voters if they support this issue.  Republican Scott Rigell from Virginia told the AP: “He said that actually implementing immigration reform would actually benefit Republicans more than it would Democrats.”  Looking at the data, Mr. Obama is right.  In a recent poll of Latino registered voters on the topic of immigration reform, we asked a couple of different versions of the question “will Republican support for immigration reform make you more likely to vote Republican.”  In the past weeks we have released the full set of results, and here we focus just on the possible gains (or losses) Republicans can make, by reporting results just among Latinos who said they had voted for Obama in 2012, or just among Latino Republicans.

In a hypothetical election match-up with a Republican candidate who supports a pathway to citizenship for undocumented immigrants, against a Democrat who opposes citizenship and calls it ‘amnesty’ we find that 61% of Obama voters would actually choose the pro-immigration Republican.

When asked if they would be more or less likely to vote for a Republican candidate in the future if the Republicans take a leadership role in passing comprehensive immigration reform including a pathway to citizenship, we find that 43% of Obama voters say more likely to vote Republican.

gop latino vote gainsWhen we explain the current bipartisan efforts in the U.S. Senate with four Republicans working alongside four Democrats, and ask if the Republican commitment to the bipartisan plan makes them more or less likely to vote Republican, we find 26% of Obama voters say they are now more inclined to vote GOP.

Finally, when we ask Latinos to consider all elections they have voted in for local, state and federal office, and ask if they have ever voted for a Republican candidate we find that41% of Obama voters say yes, they have voted Republican at some point.

While there are clear opportunities for the GOP to make gains among Democratically-leaning Latinos, there are also pitfalls if they fail to support immigration reform from within their own ranks.  When asked how important it is that Congress passes an immigration reform bill in 2013, 64% of Latino Republicans said “very” or “extremely” important. When given the argument that immigration reform should wait until later and Congress should focus only on the economy now, 69% of Latino Republicans disagreed and said Congress should focus on both immigration reform and the economy right now. Finally, when asked which immigration policy they would prefer, 66% of Latino Republicans said they wanted an immigration plan with a clear pathway to citizenship, and only 32% of Republicans said citizenship should wait until after the border is deemed secure.

gop latino losses

The data are clear that Latino Republicans expect to see movement on an immigration bill, with a path to citizenship in 2013.  But if the bill stalls, or House Republicans block the effort or prevent a path to citizenship, can the Republican party actually do worse among Latinos than Mitt Romney did in 2012?  Yes.

When asked if they approve or disapprove of the job Congressional Republicans are currently doing handling immigration policy, 40% of Latino Romney voters said they disapproved (only 46% approved).

When asked if they perceived Republican Party as doing a good job reaching out to Latinos, or if the Party was ignoring Latinos or even being hostile to Latinos, 41% of self-described Republicans said the GOP was “ignoring or being hostile” to Latinos.

When asked if they would be more or less likely to vote for Republican candidates, if the GOP blocks immigration reform with a path to citizenship, 33% of Latino Republicans said they would be less likely to support their party.

Finally, when asked if they would be more or less likely to vote for Democratic candidates, if the Democratic party takes a leadership role in passing comprehensive immigration reform, 32% of Latino Republicans said they would be more likely to vote Democrat.

Reports out of Washington suggest the Gang of 8 may have a compromise bill ready by early April, which will no doubt bring tough questions from both the left and the right.  As the debate unfolds in both chambers of Congress, the latest polling data on Latino voters is clear – Republicans have the most to gain – and lose – among Latino voters on the issue of immigration reform.  Using our online electoral college vote tool developed with America’s Voice Education Fund, we can project presidential outcomes under different scenarios of the Latino vote going more heavily Republican, or staying heavily Democratic as in 2012.

If a Republican presidential candidate can increase their support from Latinos to an average of 42% nationally, six states would flip from Democrat to Republican (NV, CO, NM, FL, IA, VA), and give the Republican 274 total electoral college votes.

However, if the Republicans do not make gains among Latinos, and stay at the same low levels that they received in 2012 they will lose three large states that voted Republican in 2012 (AZ, TX, NC), due to growth in the Latino vote.  In 2012 Latinos accounted for 10% of all voters nationwide, however all projections point to rapid growth in the Latino vote.  If the Latino vote grows to 16% of all voters nationwide and the Republicans do not make gains among Latinos, they will lose Arizona, Texas and North Carolina and the Democratic candidate will capture 396 total electoral college votes.

gop gains 42 percent

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About the poll

Matt BarretoLatino Decisions interviewed 800 Latino registered voters via landline and mobile phone, across all 50 states, from February 15-26, 2013.  Interviews were conducted in English or Spanish, at the preference of the respondent, and all interviewing staff was fully bilingual.  The survey averaged 20 minutes in length and has an overall margin of error or +/- 3.5%.  On split sample questions the margin of error is +/- 4.9%.  Complete poll results are posted here and here and a slide deck summarizing the findings is posted here. For questions about the results, please contact Matt Barreto (matt.barreto@latinodecisions.com); Gary Segura (gary.segura@latinodecisions.com) or Sylvia Manzano (sylvia.manzano@latinodecisions.com). The poll was sponsored by America’s Voice, National Council of La Raza, and SEIU.

Matt Barreto
Latino Decisions

Thursday, 21 March 2013

Published by the LA Progressive on March 21, 2013
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About Matt Barreto

Matt A. Barreto is an Associate Professor in political science at the University of Washington, Seattle and the director of the Washington Institute for the Study of Ethnicity and Race. Barreto is a founding principal of Latino Decisions. He received his Ph.D. in political science from the University of California, Irvine in 2005.

His research has been published in the American Political Science Review, Political Research Quarterly, Social Science Quarterly, Public Opinion Quarterly, and other peer reviewed journals. He is the author of the book, Ethnic Cues: The role of shared ethnicity in Latino political behavior published by the University of Michigan Press in 2010, and has just finished a book manuscript co-authored with Christopher Parker, Change We Can't Believe In: Exploring the Sources and Consequences of Tea Party Support, under contract with Princeton University Press, to be published in 2012.

In 2008, Barreto was a co-principal investigator (with Gary Segura) of the American National Election Study Latino oversample, which included the first ever-Spanish language translation of the ANES and the first ever oversample of Latino voters. In 2010, he was appointed to the ANES Board of Overseers.