Brexit, Trump, and the Anglo-American “Special Relationship”

Since this country’s foundation, the United States of America has had an ironically friendly relationship with our old colonial ruler, the United Kingdom. Despite the intense clashes during the American Revolution and the War of 1812, these two countries have otherwise consistently upheld generally amical relations throughout the modern age and into the 21st century.

The weight and validity of the so-called “special relationship” between America and Britain has recently been called into question, primarily due to US President Donald Trump’s populist, fiery rhetoric against immigrants and international trade.

However, the weight and validity of the so-called “special relationship” between America and Britain has recently been called into question, primarily due to US President Donald Trump’s populist, fiery rhetoric against immigrants and international trade, as well as his generally undiplomatic approach to… well, diplomacy! Trump’s retweeting of islamophobic videos by the far-right political party, Britain First (a group with charges of hate speech in the UK), as well as his accidental leaking of classified information, certainly doesn’t help the friendship.

Thus, with the advent of Brexit and the forthcoming crumbling of Britain’s economic and political ties to the rest of Europe, it is worth assessing the value and future of this unique trans-Atlantic alliance between the two major powers.

In British politics, the special relationship is often touted as a remarkable tool the UK holds in diplomatic and commercial affairs, often a concept to help bolster their image on the international stage. America and Britain also have close trade ties, as the UK imports ￡66.3 billion a year from the US, while America imports £99 billion a year in turn.

Both countries are the biggest sources of foreign investment for each other, trading heavily in pharmaceuticals, aviation, heavy machinery, chemicals, and commercial property. Trade has recently increased its importance in Britain particularly due to their 2016 decision to leave the European Union, a 27-member trade bloc which has the world’s largest single market.

According to Britain’s Office of National Statistics (ONS), US-UK trade increased by 26% between 2011 and 2016, indicating the growing economic value of this special relationship to the United Kingdom. In the same period, EU-UK trade decreased by 3%. Despite this, a lot of the UK’s goods and services end up in Europe, as they export 48% of their goods to the EU, and import 53% of their goods from there as well.

Nevertheless, Britain’s exit from the European Union will most likely make these trends very difficult to maintain without negotiating their membership into the European single market, customs union, or a whole new trade deal (which, as EU officials have pointed out, is highly unlikely within the two-year time frame the UK has to negotiate its exit from the bloc).

Thus, the United Kingdom will have to increase its reliance on other countries outside of Europe, particularly the United States and Canada, to maintain a strong economy. However, as Britain’s largest trade surplus is with the United States, President Trump may not be so inclined to engage in a full-fledged trade agreement due to his general opposition to international trade, as well as his distaste for countries he views as destroying American domestic production, like China.

In military and intelligence affairs, Britain and America are key partners. The two countries hold multiple shared military bases in the Atlantic and Indian Oceans, as well as engage in many military endeavors side-by-side, often (but not always) with the rest of NATO. The 1943 Quebec Agreement established the US and UK’s joint nuclear research operations to create the world’s first nuclear weapons, sharing access to test sites and weapons designs well into the 21st century, as the agreement was renewed in 2001 and 2004.

Thus, Britain and the United States have engaged in military endeavors together for quite some time. However, Trump’s fiery rhetoric and incompetent handling of classified information to other countries (as he did in May 2017 with Russian ambassador Sergei Kislyak and Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov) has damaged the UK’s faith in America’s intelligence-keeping capabilities and trustworthiness as a military ally.

At this point, it’s worth evaluating Britain’s position with Europe, seeing that their “special relationship” with America is rather flawed and unstable at the moment. In June 2018, PM Theresa May voted with her Cabinet on Britain’s official plan for Brexit, highlighting what the UK plans to negotiate with the EU on the future of their relationship after they leave the bloc. However, it is important to note that this is simply a proposal for Britain’s future relationship with Europe; This is not a final Brexit deal, it has not been accepted by the EU, nor do many external analysts expect it to. Under the proposed agreement:

• The UK Parliament would have the final say over how these rules are incorporated into UK law, keeping the right to refuse to do so (problem number one for European diplomats at the negotiating table).

• the UK would accept continuing “harmonisation” with EU rules on trading goods, covering only those necessary to ensure frictionless trade.

• There will be different arrangements for trade in services, including financial products, with greater “regulatory flexibility” and “strong reciprocal arrangements.”

• Freedom of movement as it stands will end, but a “mobility framework” will ensure UK and EU citizens can continue to travel to each other’s territories and apply for study and work.

• A new customs agreement will be created, with the objective of “a combined customs territory.” The UK will be able to control its own tariffs and develop an independent trade policy

• The jurisdiction of the European Court of Justice will end, but the UK will pay regard to its decisions in areas where common rules are in force.

On top of that, May refuses to have Britain pay any more membership dues to the EU, which most definitely won’t fly with European diplomats, as other countries with access to the single market are still required to pay some membership dues, so this would be seen as a hypocritical double standard for Britain. Additionally, the UK’s demand for access to free movement of goods without the other three pillars of the European single market (free movement of people, capital, and services, in addition to goods) has already been ruled out by many EU officials, saying that Britain cannot simply “cherry pick” whichever aspects of European Union membership they like.

So, it looks like the UK has a long way to go before they are diplomatically or economically independent enough from Europe in order to leave the EU. Nonetheless, with less than two years to go, the UK’s only other somewhat viable option is a strong rapprochement with America, despite Donald Trump’s volatility and inefficient leadership.

Jack Gil