Did You Know That Democracy Institute Says Trump Will Win?
Democracy Institute is a Washington, DC and London think tank founded in 2006. It has been employed by the Sunday Express, a British newspaper, to predict the 2020 American election. At the moment, it says that “THE FALLOUT from the Black Lives Matter protests in the US offers Donald Trump his best chance of winning the Presidential election, a shock poll for the Sunday Expresshas revealed.” Moreover, According to the poll conducted by the Washington based thinktank the Democracy Institute, President Trump is neck and neck with his rival Joe Biden on 47 percent. However, Mr Trump would win in the electoral college system by 309 to 229 delegates because he is on course to win the crucial swing states including Florida, Iowa, Michigan, Minnesota, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin where he outpolls Vice President Biden by 48 percent to44 percent.”
I think progressives must support the solution that will rid us of Trump, keep the House of Representatives as progressive as possible, and kick the Republicans out of the Senate.
These predictions are completely opposite to the majority of the American polls. So why should they have any weight? One reason is that Democracy Institute predicted Trump’s winin 2016. On the other hand, Allan Lichtman, who has correctly predicted the outcome of Presidential elections since 1984 (and who correctly predicted Trump’s 2016 win) says Trump willlose in 2020.
Fortunately, too, the American polls are stacked against Trump as well. So Democracy Institute is probably wrong this time. But who can tell for sure?
The existence of Democracy Institute’s prediction tells Democrats one thing for sure: don’t become too confident that Biden will win. Keep working, and working hard.
The larger question for progressives is whether they should be promoting Biden or instead should be working for the Greens or some other third party. I think progressives must support the solution that will rid us of Trump, keep the House of Representatives as progressive as possible, and kick the Republicans out of the Senate. But even as they do so, they should bethinking ahead to 2024 and other elections.
We can see that we have to abandon the Democrats eventually, because they have become Republicans lite. We have to continue to work hard in favor of having a new party supplant the Democrats and Republicans, a party that will lead up towards a true democracy.