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“In Your Heart You Know He’s Right”

That was Barry Goldwater’s campaign slogan in the 1964 Presidential Election. Those who did not agree had another slogan for Goldwater: “In Your Guts You Know He’s Nuts”. I don’t know for sure who will win this year, Biden or Trump, but my gut tells me that Trump will lose, and lose big. 

Most of you don’t even remember Barry Goldwater, but he was an arch conservative Senator from Arizona, and had a strong following of right wing Republicans, many of them members of the John Birch Society, a virulent anti-Communist organization. At the 1964 Republican convention, his key phrase was “Extremism in defense of liberty is no vice. And…moderation in the pursuit of justice is no virtue!”

If Democrats and Biden voters are denied a fair election in 2020, we will not accept it. We will revolt against the Trump Administration and fight for our rights.

I got to know Goldwater while I was in Washington with the Colgate Honors Washington Study Group in 1962, and while I thought he was a very pleasant guy, he did not seem to be too bright to me. I was a Rockefeller Republican then, and after Goldwater and the Birchers trashed Rockefeller at the 1964 Republican Convention, he lost me for good. I posted on the windshield of my car the following sign: “AUH2OSO4”, or “Fool’s Goldwater”.

I voted for the Democrat Lyndon Johnson, who crushed Goldwater 489 electoral votes to Goldwater’s 52. Goldwater won six states: Alabama, Louisiana, Mississippi, Georgia, South Carolina and his home state of Arizona. He lost the popular vote 43,129, 566 (61%) to 27,178,188 (39%).

The 2020 Election

Trump has never had a popularity rating as President over 50% and he usually is in the low 40s or even the high 30s. Trump has consistently been 10% behind Biden nationally and never has gotten higher than 7+% behind.

State by state, Biden has a certain 230 electoral votes, needing only 270 to win, and the battleground states, Minnesota, Wisconsin, Michigan, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Virginia, North Carolina, and Florida, are now joined by Arizona, Georgia, Texas, and even South Carolina as tossups. Trump needs to win most of the electoral votes in these states to win. 

Early Voting

Huge numbers of voters are voting early, so we may see well over half of the voters having voted by election day, due to fears of Trump voter suppression and the COVID-19 pandemic. Trump voters may be voting early, but the Trump campaign is urging their supporters to vote on election day. 

Who are the Biden voters?

Young people, 18-35.  Most of them (if they vote) are Biden supporters, and if they decide to vote in big numbers, Trump will lose big time. He wants to take away your healthcare, and force you to be taken off your parents’ health insurance policy. F**k that…

Women.  Women are voting for Biden in record numbers, turned off by how Trump treats women, wanting to “grab them by the pussy”, and with 30 or so women saying that Trump has groped or raped them. Why would any woman want to vote for this guy?

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Old people. Voters over 65 like me have no reason to vote for Trump. He wants to dump Medicare and Social Security, and his policy regarding the Coronavirus is killing us. Go to Hell, Donald…

Independents. Many independent voters hated Hillary, and had few places to go in 2016. They could vote for Jill Stein of the Green Party or Gary Johnson and vote Libertarian, or hold their noses and vote for Trump. This year, the Green and Libertarian candidates are non-entities, and will get few votes. 

And of course, loyal Democrats like me…

On the other hand, here are the Trumpsters

Non-College educated voters. I have regularly checked out people who post pro-Trump comments on Facebook, and they invariably are not college educated. Trump’s base consists mostly of high school graduates or dropouts, the same people who loved his beauty pageants and Trump University, and WWE. White trash…and hedge fund guys.

Cubans and the like. 75% of the South Florida Cubans support Trump. What is wrong with them? Trump hates you. Yes, Obama wanted to reestablish relations with Cuba, and Trump shut that down, but it has been 60+ years since Castro took over Cuba, and maybe it is time to do something different to better relations with Cuba. Get a life…

Evangelicals. The people who read the Bible every day and spout out the Scripture to justify everything, and believe that if they worship indoors during the virus spread they are protected by “Jesus’s blood”, are so deluded that they deserve Trump. They are part of a cult, and they have expended their cult membership to Trump’s. 

How Trump Can Win

The only way Trump can win is to…cheat. Voter suppression by getting his McConnell-appointed Federal Court judges to rule that voters who mailed in their ballots postmarked before November 3 but received after November 3 will not have their votes counted. Even though Trump messed up the Post Office. Or the courts could rule that voters in Texas who voted via a drive-through dropbox would be disenfranchised. Or voter signatures could be ruled invalid for minor discrepancies.

Or voters could be scared off from voting by Trump militias patrolling with guns in “open carry” states. Or the GOP could cut down the number of places to vote, and then cut off the long lines of voters who do not get into the polling place by closing time. Or the Russians and others could disrupt the voting tabulations to the extent that results are flipped to Trump.

Or some of the Republican state legislatures could throw out the Biden -winning popular vote in their states for supposed “voting irregularities”and appoint their own competing GOP electors to be submitted for counting in the “Electoral College”. 

If Democrats and Biden voters are denied a fair election in 2020, we will not accept it. We will revolt against the Trump Administration and fight for our rights. We will storm Washington and the White House and demand that Trump leave. One of my ancestors fired the first shot in the First American Revolution, at Lexington Green on April 19, 1775.

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Let me fire the first shot in the Second American Revolution, not with a gun but with words. As Thomas Paine said during the First, “Give me liberty or give me death!” 

Ted Vaill