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As the Republicans triumphantly prepare to take over Congress in 2015, word has come that November, 2016 will be a disaster for the Grumpy Old People's party. They are certain to lose the Senate and the Presidency, and the House may also be in peril for them.

GOP Losing 2016 Elections

Given the electoral college and the geographic nature of politics today, the Democratic candidate for President (presumptively Hillary Clinton), has already sown up 257 of the 270 electoral votes needed to win the Presidency. The West Coast, Northeast, and Upper Midwest are solidly Democrat, and all that is needed to reach 270 electoral votes would be a victory in Ohio, Colorado, Iowa, Virginia, North Carolina or Florida, or perhaps in two of these states.

In the Senate, there are 24 Republican seats up for reelection in 2016, and 18 of them are in states with large Democratic voter blocks. Only one of the 10 Democratic seats up for reelection is in danger. With a four seat swing in the Senate, the Democrats would be back in the majority in January, 2017.

In the House, the job will be harder for the Democrats, given the gerrymandering and voter suppression tactics of the Republicans throughout the country. However, if the Democrats have a strong Presidential candidate, such as Hillary, and the Republicans in Congress, and in their Presidentlal candidate "clown show", act as crazed as it looks like they may, the Democrats could pick up the 30 or so seats in the House needed to regain the majority.

The next two years should be a feast for the talking heads on television: President Obama has given the Republicans in Congress a big middle finger salute as he nears the fourth quarter of his Presidency.

The next two years should be a feast for the talking heads on television: President Obama has given the Republicans in Congress a big middle finger salute as he nears the fourth quarter of his Presidency. Tea Baggers in Congress, new and old, are even saying that, for the first time in history, they should deny President Obama the opportunity to give his State of the Union address to a joint session of Congress and the nation in January, 2015.

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Speaker of the House John Boehner is in a difficult position: President Obama has challenged him to allow a vote in the House on the immigration reform bill, but he has so far refused to allow it. There are enough votes in the House to pass the bill already passed by the Senate, but if Boehner lets it happen, the right wing crazies in his party might just deny him the Speakership when the 114th Congress convenes in January.

Some are equating the action of President Obama redirecting the deportation of "illegal'" immigrants through his Executive Orders to President Lincoln's January 1, 1863 Emancipation Proclamation, which proclaimed the freedom of all slaves in the ten states that were still in rebellion at that time. It also ordered that suitable persons among those freed could be enrolled into the paid service of the Union Army. (The Proclamation did not compensate slaveowners, did not outlaw slavery, and did not grant citizenship to the ex-slaves, but it did provide the legal framework for freeing more than 3 million slaves in the Confederate states as they were subdued.)

Some might argue that 21st Century undocumented persons in the U.S. are the modern day equivalent of 19th Century slaves, as they provide low wage workers to be exploited in low skill jobs in this country. President Obama's Executive Orders, like Lincoln's Emancipation Proclamation, would expire at the end of his Presidency, lending urgency to the election of a successor Democratic President who would continue them or enhance them into legislation. (The 1865 ratification of the Thirteenth Amendment, which made slavery and indentured servitude illegal in the U.S., accomplished the same thing.)

The 2016 election, should Congress fail to pass the pending legislation to update our immigration laws, would be highlighted by aggressive pushes by the families and advocates of a path to citizenship for Dreamers and undocumented workers to elect a Democratic President and Congress. It can be predicted that no (or few) Republicans will be part of this effort.

ted vaill

Ted Vaill