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Are you shocked that Sanders is favored over Clinton amongst all Independents and Democrats by at least 15.2%?

Independents Favor Bernie

Include All Independents and Democrats: Bernie, 57.6%, Hillary, 42.4%—John M. Bachar, Jr.

Don’t be! The rational, elementary arithmetical analysis based on real data proves why this is so. Like far too many, you may have been confused by the hodge-podge of unfair, misleading results of many undemocratic “closed” primaries (foisted by Democratic Party that still uses the oxymoronic word, “Democratic”).

Here is all you need to know but were never told by the inept media (print, TV, radio, et alia) pundit “experts”.

Let v denote the nation-wide number of registered voters. The latest Gallup poll (Apr 6-10, 2016) shows the following: Independents (neither Democrat nor Republican), 44%; Democrats, 31%; Republicans, 25%.

Poll after poll shows that the overwhelming percentage of Independents are former Democrats who have given up membership because the party no longer represents the will and the needs of the people.

Based upon the results from many states that had “open” primaries (meaning, Independents were allowed to vote), and upon the results of many polls of Independents, Sanders is favored by at least 70%.

Based upon the results from many states that had “closed” primaries (meaning, only Democrats were allowed to vote), and upon the results of many polls of Democrats, Clinton is favored by 51% to 56%.

Let us suppose (conservatively) that 70% of Independents favor Sanders, and that (generously) 60% of Democrats favor Clinton.

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It follows that:

[(0.70) x (0.44) x v + (0.40) x (0.31) x v] divided by [(0.44) x v + (0.31) x v} favor Sanders amongst the set of Independents and Democrats,

and that

[(0.30) x (0.44) x v + (0.60) x (0.31) x v] divided by [(0.44) x v + (0.31) x v} favor Clinton amongst the set of Independents and Democrats.

The calculation yields 57.6% for Sanders, and 42.4% for Clinton amongst the set of Independents and Democrats.

Poll after poll shows that the overwhelming percentage of Independents are former Democrats who have given up membership because the party no longer represents the will and the needs of the people.

John M. Bachar, Jr.

Emeritus Professor of Mathematics, California State University Long Beach

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