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When Nate Silver buries his predictions on his website, then you know this election is a toss-up. In case you don’t know, Nate Silver is the wunderkind of the pollster world who has trumpeted his calls on election winners for years and consistently been right.

nate silver undecided

Uh, Oh, Nate Silver Is Undecided:  The Wolf Really Is at the Door—Steve Fine

That is why his reticence to stick his neck out now, Monday, the 7th, the day before we vote to call this election for Clinton is so eye-popping telling and gut churning scary. He has not suddenly learned humility, rather his data does not support a Clinton victory. And so, once again, The Alarmist advocates erring on the side of caution: Vote Clinton to Stop Trump. Yes, even in California.

When Nate Silver buries his predictions on his website, then you know this election is a toss-up.

Please go to and seek this article for yourself. I have never been one to put my faith in pollsters, but I do think it highly significant when the most cock-sure and reliable pollster of the modern era resorts to language like this on the day before a national election:

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All of this data is nevertheless consistent with Clinton being an Electoral College favorite. She has a 64 percent chance of winning the Electoral College in our polls-only model and 65 percent in polls-plus, putting her somewhere in the range of being a 2-1 favorite.

At the same time, it shouldn’t be hard to see how Clinton could lose. She’s up by about 3 percentage points nationally, and 3-point polling errors happen fairly often, including in the last two federal elections. Obama beat his polls by about 3 points in 2012, whereas Republicans beat their polls by 3 to 4 points in the 2014 midterms. If such an error were to favor Clinton, she could win in a borderline landslide. If the error favored Trump, however, she’d be in a dicey position, because the error is highly correlated across states.

Yes, up 3 to 4 percentage points could very well be the kiss of death for any candidate even in a normal Presidential election cycle, and this one ain’t normal. There are too many undecided voters out there to add to the percentage differential, not to mention underground Trump supporters. Plus—and this is the 'polls-plus' category Nate Silver and every other pollster completely miss, there are those who may simply be moved to select “Trump” tomorrow in the same manner they have been clicking on the name for the past year and a half, out of habit. Or even worse, via Michael Moore’s warning, out of a perverse pleasure in sticking it to the system. Either way, this large category of undecideds are capable of guaranteeing we all will suffer many more years to come of the Trump show.

Break your habit now, at the eleventh hour Jill Stein voters (and Write-in Bernie voters) of assuming this election is in the bag for Clinton, so you can vote your conscience. Listen to the cry of The Alarmist. This time, people, there really is a wolf at the door. Vote Clinton to Stop Trump!


The Alarmist