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I keep watching what is happening during the election campaign. There are actually five important candidates running for President. Hillary Clinton, Donald Trump, Gary Johnson, Jill Stein and now Evan McMullin, an anti-Trump Republican. The polls are becoming more and more wild, balancing towards what some have said may become a Clinton landslide. And a landslide might render governing that much more difficult.

November Election Prediction

Getting Ready for a New World—Michael Hertz

If the polls are basically the same in October, Sanders supporters will figure out that they are free to vote their conscience without any real danger that Trump will take their state.

I have never tried to predict an election, but I'm going to make a guess here that, with all the candidates in the running, there's going to be a split in the electorate. We know that both Clinton and Trump are extremely unpopular. The fact that Evan McMullin has entered the race after both conventions have ended should be a solid indicator that he, at least, believes that he can take votes away from Donald Trump.

Currently, 46% of registered voters support Clinton and 34% back Trump, with 7% supporting Libertarian Gary Johnson, and 2% backing Jill Stein of the Green Party. Support among likely voters stands at 50% Clinton, 37% Trump, 7% Johnson, and 2% Stein. In a poll taken days before the Republican convention in mid-July, Clinton held a narrow 43% to 40% lead among registered voters and a 45% to 43% lead among likely voters.”

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I feel fairly certain that McMullin will draw votes from Trump and even a few from Clinton. So will Johnson. But if Trump's vote drains away, the Bernie Sanders supporters who went to Clinton in order to defeat Trump will understand that their votes are not needed except in a very few swing states. For example, as of the end of July, an average of five polls in California had Clinton at 46% of the vote and Trump at 30%.

If the polls are basically the same in October, Sanders supporters will figure out that they are free to vote their conscience without any real danger that Trump will take their state. In Virginia, Clinton has 43%, Trump 35%, Johnson 9%, Stein 2%, and other has 11%. It's hard to see Trump winning if the polls are similar in October. So, again, it's likely that even more Trump and Clinton voters will vote their conscience rather than for their party.

My rough prediction is that Clinton will get 45%, Trump 35%, and the third parties will share 30%. This will show once again the Americans are dissatisfied with the status quo.

This is a tricky prediction, and my intention is to re-examine the situation in a few months. Meanwhile, I'm going to be working with Bernie Sanders organizations like Our Revolution and Sanders Institute. Regardless of how the vote turns out, I think that we need to be ready for a new world.

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Michael T. Hertz