Election Day, November 3, 2020, is less than six months away. What will the world be like by then? Will the Covid-19 virus be contained? Will there be a fall spike upward of the virus? Will Americans be allowed to leave their homes to vote? Will we all vote by mail? Will we be able to vote at all?
Most importantly, what can Progressives do to insure that the Tyrant Trump is not reelected? What can we do to flip the Senate as well? We can dump Trump and elect Biden or whomever, but without a Democratic majority in the Senate starting in January 2021, a full recovery from the virus and of our democracy will be crippled.
We can dump Trump and elect Biden or whomever, but without a Democratic majority in the Senate starting in January 2021, a full recovery from the virus and of our democracy will be crippled.
Here is what we need to do:
The Current Makeup of the Senate and the 12 Democratic Senators up for Reelection
Of the 100 members of the Senate, a mere 12 Democrats are up for reelection, compared with 23 Republicans. Of the 12 Democrats, eight seats are safe; only one is in serious trouble, Doug Jones in Alabama, who will be running against former Senator and Trump Attorney General Jeff Sessions, and former football coach Tommy Tuberville, whom Trump has endorsed. Sessions leads Jones 54% to 41%; Tuberville leads him 50% to 42%. (All polling data herein is as of late April 2020 and could shift quickly.) This means that to flip the Senate, the Democrats would have to pick up at least four seats if Jones loses.
Senator Tom Udall of New Mexico is retiring, but his Democratic candidate replacement, Rep. Ben Ray Lujan, is way ahead of any Republican opponent, by 19%. Michigan Democrat Gary Peters was thought to be in danger, but is currently leading his GOP opponent John James by 10%. In Massachusetts, Democratic Senator Ed Markey is running against Rep. Joe Kennedy III. Markey is leading, but the race is getting much closer. Either way, a Democrat will win.
The 23 GOP Senators up for Reelection
Eight GOP Senators are safe—Capito (WV), Rounds (SD) , Imhofe (OK), Sasse (NE), Cassidy (LA), Risch (ID), Cotton (AK), and Hyde-Smith (MS). Three are retiring: Alexander (TN), and Enzi (WY), and their successors are projected to be Republicans. The third is Pat Roberts of Kansas, and the Democrat, Barbara Bollier, is in a tight race with the Republican, the horrible Kris Kobach.
Four "long shot" races for Democrats are these: Republican Senator Joni ("I like to castrate") Ernst, in a currently very close race with Democrat Teresa Greenfield; Georgia Senator and Trump-lover David Perdue, who will be in a tough fight with Democrats Jon Ossoff and Teresa Tomlinson; "Moscow Mitch" McConnell (KY), currently tied with Democrat and former fighter pilot Amy McGrath: and Alaska Senator Dan Sullivan, who upset a Democratic Senator six years ago and is currently tied with an Independent, Al ("I fight Grizzlys") Gross.
Two other seats are likely to be retained by the GOP: Texas Senator John Cornyn, the most highly partisan member of the Senate, who has no shame: and our dear friend from South Carolina, new Trump buddy Lindsay Graham, who is four points ahead of a black Democratic candidate, Jamie Harrison.
The good news is that five Democratic candidates have a great chance of winning, if they get the financial support to do so: former Astronaut Mark Kelly is currently favored by 9 points over GOP Senator Martha McSally, who after losing a Senate race in 2018, was appointed to replace John McCain; Colorado Senator Cory Gardner is losing badly to former two-term Democratic Governor John Hickenlooper; Maine Senator Susan ("Flipper") Collins is trailing State Assembly Leader Sara Gideon by four points; Tiny Tom Tillis of North Carolina is currently behind Democrat Cal Cunningham; and two-term Democratic Governor of Montana Steve Bullock is leading incumbent GOP Senator Steve Daines by 7 points.
The Amazing Race That May Decide it All
The above 34 races show 11 safe Democratic seats and eight safe GOP. Two of the three seats of retiring GOP senators are safe, and one is a possible flip. Four GOP seats are possible flips but are long shots, and two GOP seats are "likely GOP". Five currently GOP seats "lean Democratic" and could very well flip. One Democratic seat will likely flip. If Doug Jones loses, and the Democrats add five seats, the Democrats would have a majority…. unless…
…the remaining seat, the SECOND Georgia Senate seat up for election, is retained by the GOP, in an election that will take place on January 5, 2021, TWO DAYS after the Senate reconvenes. This unusual situation is occurring because Senator ("I used inside information to sell my stock") Kelly Loeffler, appointed in January 2020 to replace resigned Senator Johnny Isakson, has to run for the seat, in a primary to occur on election day, November 3, 2020. She will be running against Big Mouth Republican Rep. Doug Collins, as well as Democrats Matt Lieberman (Joe's son) and the pastor of MLK's Ebenezer Baptist Church. Unless one of these candidates gets more than 50% of the vote, there will be a runoff on January 5, 2021.
All that is at stake could be the future of this country. If Trump wins reelection (or refuses to leave office, declaring the result a "hoax"), in the above scenario, the Senate would then be tied 50-50, and VP Pence would cast the deciding vote in the Senate, and the GOP would retain the majority. Our democracy would be over…
Due to Trump's unprecedented incompetence, we have a real chance to flip the Senate this year, just as we did the House in 2018. But we need your help. Please contribute financially to the Democratic Senate candidates listed above.
Our Democratic clubs are part of the Westside Democratic HQ. In 2018, we supported thousands of volunteers working to Flip the House, and we already have been phone banking, canvassing online, postcarding, and texting this year to ensure that we repeat our successes and take back the White House and the U.S. Senate as well. The future of our nation is at stake.
Ted Vaill and Jon Katz
Ted Vaill is Vice President of the Malibu Democratic Club and Jon Katz is President of the Santa Monica Democratic Club. For more information on helping out, contact: westsidedemhq.org.