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Democrats in Trouble

The New York Times this past weekend had an editorial by Christopher Caldwell entitled “New Poll Spells Trouble for Democrats”. Trouble is, the author is a long-time Republican operative with time served on Republican Bill Kristol’s Weekly Standard and now a fellow at the right-wing Claremont institute. His article is crammed with wishful thinking.

Biden is 79, and still has three years left in his term as President. A lot can happen in three years. Recall how Obama got “shellacked” in the 2010 midterms, but easily won reelection in 2012. It is not even clear if Biden will run for reelection; he would be 82. There is a lot of time for another Democrat to come to the forefront and capture the 2024 nomination and the Presidency.

A lot of right-wing pundits are predicting that Donald Trump will be the GOP candidate in 2024, but I doubt it. He is just grifting for money now, trying to preserve his failing business empire.
He also would be 78 in 2024, and 300 pounds or so, and I do not believe his health is that good. I also predict that much of 2022 will see week after week of hearings by the 1/6 Select Committee, with coup plotters and Trump officials testifying as to how they attempted to overthrow the government and keep Trump in office, or taking the Fifth.

2022 will see week after week of hearings by the 1/6 Select Committee, with coup plotters and Trump officials testifying as to how they attempted to overthrow the government and keep Trump in office, or taking the Fifth.

Some GOP voters could not care less what the Select Committee reveals, but others have to be upset by what their party’s President has done to destabilize our democracy. They will not support another term by their twice-impeached President, and will look elsewhere for a candidate.

2022 Congressional Election

These same pundits are also predicting a landslide return of the GOP to control of Congress, but this won’t happen. There are 20 Republican Senators up for reelection or who have retired, leaving open seats in Pennsylvania, Ohio and North Carolina. Democrats have good chances to win all three. The Democrats have tossup races in Arizona (Mark Kelly), Georgia (Raphael Warnock) and Nevada (Catherine Cortez Masto), but Wisconsin two-term mega-Trumpster Senator Ron Johnson violated his pledge to serve only two terms, and decided to run again. He can be defeated, if a good Democrat runs against him. There is a strong chance that the Democrats can pick up a seat or two in the Senate, and neutralize the DINOs Kyrsten Sinema and Joe Manchin.

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In the House, this is a reapportionment year, and although the GOP will gerrymander the crap out of the redistricting in states where they control the legislature, in states like California the Democrats could pick up five seats or so. In New York, the redistricting just announced shows a nicely gerrymandered projected 22D-4R split. My Congressman, Ted Lieu, is predicting that the Democrats will retain the majority in the House in 2022.

Biden’s Job Performance

Biden’s popularity rating has declined to about 42% from its high point of about 53% after his inauguration a year ago, but it is the middle of winter, COVID is still affecting our lives, and the DINO twins have impacted his agenda. But he did get the infrastructure bill through Congress, is on a record pace getting judicial nominations through the Senate, the unemployment rate is at a near record low level, and the GDP increased to a high of 7.5% in the 4th Quarter of 2021, the best in 37 years.

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His inability to get rid of the COVID pandemic can be blamed largely on those who refuse to get vaccinated (mostly Republicans), and the fumble in Kabul is mostly the residue of Trump’s signing the “surrender document” before he left office, leaving Biden with a difficult situation to resolve. The situation in Ukraine is currently uncertain, but you can be sure that if Trump was still in office, Ukraine would again be a Russian state.

Many of us are hoping that by the time the 2022 election is upon us, Trump will be indicted and preparing to enter the slammer, as will his fellow 1/6 coup plotters, God willing.

No gloom, no doom ahead…

Ted Vaill