The Shift in State of the Atmosphere

global warming
Figure. 1. Upper Pleistocene and Holocene greenhouse gases – global temperature relations (after Hansen et al., 2008), showing variations in paleotemperature from 420 kyr (0.5xVostok ice core proxy temperatures), instrumental temperatures (from about 1850), greenhouse gas forcings (GHG: CO2, CH4, N2O, O3) and all forcings (including aerosols and land use). Note the rise in GHG forcing by >2.5 Watt/m2 since about 1850 (large arrow), exceeding previous interglacial values, and the corresponding temperature anomaly, mitigated by aerosols (line arrow).

The emission since 1750 of over 320 billion tons of carbon (GtC) from buried early biospheres, adding more than one half of the original carbon inventory of the atmosphere (~590 GtC), as well as the depletion of vegetation, are triggering a fundamental shift in the state of the atmosphere, tracking toward conditions which exceed interglacial temperatures over the last 400,000 years and are analogous to conditions of the mid-Pliocene ~2.8 million years ago [1] (Figure 1), the last decade 2000-2010 being the warmest since instrumental measurements commenced (Figure 2).

As stated by Joachim Schellnhuber, director of the Potsdam Climate Impacts Institute [2], “we’re simply talking about the very life support system of this planet”.

Lost all too often in the climate debate is an appreciation of the delicate balance between the physical and chemical state of the atmosphere–ocean–landcryosphere system and the evolving biosphere, which controls the emergence, survival and demise of species, including humans. By contrast to Venus’ thick blanket of CO2 and SO2 atmosphere, which exerts extreme pressure (90 bars) at the Venusian surface, and unlike Mars’ thin (0.01 bar) CO2 atmosphere, the presence in the Earth’s atmosphere of trace concentrations of well-mixed greenhouse gases (GHG) (CO2, CH4, NxO, O3), has modulated surface temperatures during most of the Holocene within the range of -89 and +57.7 degrees Celsius and a mean of 14°C, allowing the presence of liquid water and thereby of life. By contrast to the long-lived GHG, water vapour has a short atmospheric residence time (9 days) and low concentrations over arid climate zones and the polar regions.

global warming
Figure 2. Mean annual (Jan-Dec) global temperatures for 2000-2010 relative to 1951-1980.

Forming a thin breathable veneer only slightly more than 1000th Earth’s diameter, and evolving both gradually as well as through major perturbations with time, the atmosphere acts as a “lungs” of the biosphere, allowing an exchange of carbon gases and oxygen with plants and animals, which in turn affect the atmosphere, for example through release of methane and photosynthetic oxygen.

As shown by numerous proxy-based paleo-climate studies, when the concentration of CO2 in the atmosphere rises above a critical threshold, the climate shifts to a different state. Any significant increase in the level of carbon gases triggers powerful feedbacks, including ice melt/warm water interaction, decline of ice reflection (albedo) and increase in infrared absorption by exposed water. Further release of CO2 from the oceans and from drying and burning vegetation shifts global climate zones toward the poles, warms the oceans and induces ocean acidification [3, 10].

global warming
Figure 3. Projected relations between changes in atmospheric CO2 and equilibrium global average temperature increase above pre-industrial levels, based on climate sensitivity (CS) of 3 ± 1.5oC per doubling of CO2 (IPCC-2007). The marks (I, II, III etc.) represent degrees of severity of climate change scenarios. The current CO2-eq value of 460 (CO2 + the CH4 factor) is indicated. Mid-Miocene (~15 Ma) and mid-Pliocene (~2.8 Ma) parameters are proxy-based paleo-CO2 levels (Pagani et al., 2010), implying significantly higher CS values.

The essential physics of the infrared absorption/emission resonance of greenhouse molecules, indicated by observations in nature and laboratory studies, is expressed by the relations between atmospheric CO2 and mean global temperature projections (Figure 3). Increased evaporation in warming oceans results in enhanced, often abrupt, precipitation events and floods, as indicated by current trends since about 1980 (Figure 4).

During most of Earth’s history the oxygen-poor composition of the atmosphere resulted in a major role of reduced carbon species in the air and the oceans, including methane and carbon monoxide, allowing mainly algae and bacteria to exist. It is commonly held that, from about 0.7 billion years ago, in the wake of the Marinoan glaciation (so-called ‘Snowball Earth’), oxygenation of lowtemperature water allowed development of new oxygen-binding proteins and thereby of multicellular animals, followed by development of a rich variety of organisms — the “Cambrian explosion”.[4].

The present state of the biosphere, allowing survival of large mammals and of humans on the continents, developed during global cooling of the upper Eocene and in particular once when CO2 levels declined below about 500 ppm some 34 million years ago (end Eocene) [5, 7]. From this stage, interrupted by warm periods in the Oligocene (~25 million years ago) and mid-Miocene (~15 million years ago), the Antarctic ice sheet exerted a major effect on the global climate regime. About 2.8 million years ago (mid-Pliocene) the Greenland ice sheet and the Arctic Sea ice began to form, with further decline in global temperatures expressed through glacial–interglacial cycles controlled by orbital forcing (Milankovic cycles), with atmospheric CO2 levels oscillating between 180 and 280 ppm CO2 (Fig. 1), conditions which allowed the emergence of humans in Africa and their migration all over the world [6].

global warming
Figure 4. Frequency of global geophysical events and natural catastrophes, 1998 – 2008. From Topics Geo: Natural catastrophes 2008 analyses, assessments, positions.

Recent paleoclimate studies, using multiple proxies (soil carbonate δ13C, alkenones, boron/calcium, stomata leaf pores), indicate that the current CO2 level of 391 ppm and the CO2-equivalent level of ~460 ppm (which includes the methane factor), commit warming above pre-industrial levels to global increase in greenhouse forcing equivalent to temperature rise in the range of 3 to 4°C [2] (Fig. 1) and near-10°C in polar regions, tracking toward ice-free Earth conditions. Small human clans responded to extreme climate changes during the Pleistocene (cold fronts, storms, draughts, sea level changes) through migration within and out of Africa. Homo sapiens emerged during the glacial period preceding the 124 000 year-old Emian interglacial, when temperatures were about 1°C above late Holocene levels (Fig. 1) and sea levels higher by 6–8 metres [3]. The development of agriculture, and thereby of human civilisation, had to wait until the climate stabilised about 8000 years ago, when large-scale irrigation along the great river valleys (the Nile, Euphrates, Hindus and Yellow River) became possible thanks to the multi-seasonal regulation of river flow allowed by fluctuations in the source mountains snow cover.

Since the 18th century, global temperature rose by and average of ~0.8°C. Another ~0.5°C is masked by industrial-emitted aerosols (mainly SO2). The polar regions, acting as the ‘thermostats’ of the Earth, are the source of the cold air current vortices and the cold ocean currents, such as the Humboldt and California current, which affect the ENSO cycle and keep the Earth’s overall temperature in balance, much as the blood stream regulates the body’s temperature and the supply of oxygen.

At +4°C rise, advanced to total melting of the Greenland and west Antarctic ice sheets would lead to over 10 metres-scale sea level rise. Further rise of CO2-equivalent above 500 ppm and mean global temperatures above 4°C (Figure 3) could lead toward greenhouse Earth conditions such as existed during the early Eocene [5, 7].

Feedback effects associated with a rise of atmospheric CO2 include desiccation and burning of vegetation, releasing more CO2. The onset of methane release from polar bogs and sediments is of major concern. Ice/melt water interaction proceeds as melt water melts more ice; ice loss results in albedo loss and the exposed water absorb infrared heat, leading to an amplified feedback loop. Because CO2 is cumulative, with atmospheric residence time on the scale of centuries to millennia, stabilisation of the climate through only small incremental reduction in emissions may not be sufficient to avoid runaway climate change and possible tipping points.

Climate change can be geologically defined as a global oxygenation event which affects fossil carbon deposits as well as the present biosphere. At 2 ppm CO2 per year rise the pace of carbon oxidation exceeds the fastest recorded geological rate of 0.4 ppm/year at the Paleocene–Eocene boundary at 55 Ma, when about 2000 GtC were released to the atmosphere, triggering an extinction of species [5, 7].

Sea level rise constitutes the critical parameter which reflects the sum-total of other elements of climate change. Since the early 20th century, the rate of sea level rise increased from about 1 mm/year to about 3.5 mm/year (1993–2009 mean rate 3.2+/-0.4 mm/year) due to thermal expansion and ice melt, i.e. a nearly four-fold increase since the onset of the industrial age.

The Earth poles are warming at rates 3 to 4 times faster than low latitudes (NASA/GISS, 2010) [8] (Figure 2). The most detailed satellite information available shows that ice sheets in Greenland and western Antarctica are shrinking and in some places are already in runaway melt mode (Pritchard, 2009) [9]. Laser readings from a NASA satellite indicate changes in the height of the ice sheets, especially at their edges, where warmer water eats away from below. In some parts of Antarctica ice sheets have been losing 30 feet a year in thickness since 2003.

At present the climate is in a lag period, with increasing atmospheric energy expressed by heat waves, hurricanes and floods, which increased by approximately a factor of 2 since 1980 (Figure 4), and by a shift of mid-latitude high-pressure zones toward the poles. With ensuing desertification of temperate zones, i.e. southern Europe, southern and southwest Australia, southern Africa, the desiccated forests become prey to firestorms. .

andrew sliksonAt 460 ppm CO2-equivalent the climate is tracking close to the upper stability limit of the Antarctic ice sheet, defined at approximately 500 ppm [3, 5, 7]. Humans cannot argue with the physics and chemistry of the atmosphere, nor with the sensitivity of the oceans and marine life to changes in pH [10]. What is needed are urgent measures including deep cuts in carbon emissions and downdraw of atmospheric CO2, fast-track transformation to non-polluting energy utilities (solar, solar-thermal, wind, tide, geothermal, hot rocks), global reforestation and re-vegetation campaigns, including application of biochar (pyrolysis of biomass).

The alternative does not bear contemplation.

Andrew Glikson
Earth and Paleoclimate science
Australian National University


  1. M Pagani et al., 2010, ‘High Earth-system climate sensitivity determined from Pliocene carbon dioxide concentrations’ Nature Geoscience, 3, p 27–30.
  2. HJ Schellnhuber, 2009, Tipping elements in the Earth System. Proceedings National Academy Science, 106, p. 20561-20563.
  3. J Hansen et al, 2008, ‘Target CO2: Where Should humanity aim?’ Open Atmospheric Science Journal, V2, p. 217–231.
  4. SJ Gould, 1989. Wonderful Life: The Burgess Shale and the Nature of History. W.W. Norton & Company. ISBN 0393027058
  5. JC Zachos et al, 2008, ’An early Cainozoic perspective on greenhouse warming and carbon-cycle dynamics’ Nature 451, p. 279–283.
  6. PB deMenocal, 2004, ‘African climate change and faunal evolution during the Pliocene-Pleistocene’ Earth and Planetary Science Letters 220, 1/2, p. 3–24.
  7. JC Zachos et al. 2001. Trends, rhythms, and aberrations in global climate 65 Ma to present. Science 292, p. 686-693.
  8. NASA-GISS Surface Temperature Analysis (GISTEMP)
  9. HD Pritchard et al., 2009, ‘Extensive dynamic thinning on the margins of the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets’ Nature 461, p. 971–975.
  10. JEN Veron, 2008, Mass extinctions and ocean acidification: biological constraints on geological dilemmas. Coral Reefs 27, p. 459–472 DOI 10.1007/s00338-008-0381-8.


  1. says

    In your model there seems to be no accounting of the amount of water vapor or O₂in the atmosphere. When were water vapor and o₂the highest, if not when CO₂was much higher than today?

    It seems the epochs you refer to in the past were the origins of life, not the much colder present. Certainly, the references to 5, 10, or even hurricane seasons seems to be more in the realm of anedotal evidence than all inclusive data for an extended model of prediction.

    You need to do more than regugitate the prevalent paradigm of global warming if you want to make an article worthy of consideration.

  2. Peter Eisenhardt says

    I think you have a typo in the first paragraph of this otherwise excellent (and disturbing) article:

    The Pliocene epoch was more like 2.8 million years ago than 2.8 billion years ago –
    misstated in first paragraph, correctly shown in Fig. 3

    In some sense humanity is not yet toilet-trained. Those who see this have
    an obligation to point it out.


Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *