Losing a bet is not a new thing in the world of sports betting. Every day, people lose bets, from small taruhan bola terbaik stakes to huge millions.
But why is this so? I kept wondering.
For many years, I always wondered why people lose so many bets and win just a few. In my quest to find answers, I would seek various expert opinions and read blogs to find out what the reasons are.
But the bulk of the responses I got pointed to the poor betting skills of most punters as the major reason why they lose more bets than they win.
Losing a sports bet is as much about the factors affecting an event as it is the betting skills of the punter.
But is this really true? Are people losing money because they suck at sports betting? Are people betting on the wrong sport? Are punters not doing enough research before staking on games?
Yes, I know that there are some suckers out there, many of whom don’t even have a basic understanding of the sport they’re betting on. But away from these few donkeys are some full-blown, experienced punters, many of whom take sports betting as seriously as their day job.
But even they lose bets too.
In the end, I drew one final conclusion, which is: losing a sports bet is as much about the factors affecting an event as it is the betting skills of the punter.
Upon this discovery, I was able to draw out the four biggest factors that can affect a sporting event and invariably affect the outcome of a bet.
These factors are:
- Recovery Time
- The physical condition of athletes
- The mental condition of athletes
Weather is one of the biggest factors that can affect the outcome of a sporting event. It doesn’t matter who the favorite was before the start of a match, if there’s a slight change in weather during a match and this change doesn’t favor the playing style or condition of the favorite, they might end up losing to the underdog.
So, imagine you spend weeks forecasting and researching a matchup and finally decided to back, say, team A to win the game – a decision backed by adequate research, detailed analysis, and careful prediction. But during the course of the game, rain began to fall. Due to the change in weather, team A loses momentum because some of their players don’t do too well on wet surfaces and end up losing to team B. As such, you lose your bet. But not because you weren’t a good punter or because you didn’t do enough research, but basically because Mother Nature decides to rain down on us.
Although not all sports are affected directly by changes in weather conditions, sports like tennis, golf, football, cricket, and other outdoor sports are particularly affected by weather changes. So it is important to check what the weather forecast is and how the various teams or players in these sports react to different weather conditions before making your bets.
While it is almost impossible for anyone to predict accurately whether it'll rain or snow at a sports match, you can check the predicted weather forecast for the match day and consider the possibility of a weather change when making your betting picks.
Another important factor that can sway the outcome of an event in a direction nobody envisaged is recovery time. Unfortunately, this is a factor that most bettors fail to pay attention to.
As much as we tend to forget, all the athletes in the different sports we bet on are humans, and as such, they cannot always perform at the same level of efficiency at all times.
For example, if a team has played through the fire and given their all in a derby match on a Sunday evening, it is very likely that they may not be able to replicate a similar performance the next time they take to the court, especially if they’re not given enough time to rest.
So before you bet on a player or a team in a sports match, always check the date of their last match, how many recovery days they've had, and their playing schedule. Usually, when a team has a game of greater importance ahead, they may decide to ease-up a little in the games leading to that all-important match.
The physical condition of the athletes
Even though most sports, today, are crawling with therapists and sports doctors, it is still not uncommon to find players becoming injured and staying away from the sports for a while. When this happens, the team that the player belongs to becomes affected and probably weakened.
When this is the case, it can be pretty risky to bet on this team, as you never can tell how they’re going to react to the loss of one or some of their key players. This is why it is always important to check the physical condition of the team you want to bet on before moving ahead with your wager. In some cases, some teams might decide to speed up the recovery process of an injured player because they have an important game coming up. You should try to avoid these types of teams, at all costs, as they offer little guarantee for success.
The mental condition of the athletes
Athletes are amongst the most emotional people on earth. Although not all athletes cry on the field of play or give in to their emotions, a very large percentage of them often play poorly when they're going through a difficult patch.
Typically, when some players or teams have lost a sports match that they were expected to win, they become demoralized. As such, they tend to lose their next game, and the next, and possibly the next.
In other scenarios, a team might have a certain level of phobia when playing on a particular court or stadium or when playing against a given opposition.
So when betting on a team, you should find out how they perform on certain days of the week, how they react on certain courts or in certain stadiums, how they fare against certain oppositions, how they react to losses, and what their mental status before a match is.