If Texas State Sen. Wendy Davis (D) runs for governor in 2014 and San Antonio Mayor Julian Castro (D) runs for United States senator in 2014 and former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton runs for president in 2016, you read it here first: Texas goes blue in either 2014 or 2016.
It will be a new day for women in America with a female Texas governor and a female president of the United States. It will be a new day for Hispanics who will not have to revisit the indignities of Texas Attorney General Greg Abbott (R) attacking their voting rights in Texas while Republicans seek to destroy fair immigration reform in Washington.
I believe there are very strong odds that Hillary Clinton runs for president and a very good chance that Wendy Davis runs for governor. At this time I do not expect Julian Castro to run statewide in 2014, though this can change.
If Castro does not run, I know prominent Texas Democrats already preparing to recruit a high-voltage Hispanic candidate to run instead of him. Memo to Julian: Do not miss the train as it leaves the station because others may seize the moment while you “wait for the right moment.”
There is one great misunderstanding about the Texas blue movement. Obviously the great demographic wave of Hispanic population is on the brink of transforming Texas politics. This is why the Supreme Court moved backward on voting rights. Texas Attorney General and probable Republican nominee for governor Abbott was happier than a bug in a bakery and cycled faster than Lance Armstrong to launch new violations of the voting rights act against Texas Hispanics.
However, Abbott’s hostility toward Hispanic voting rights and fair Hispanic representation will only energize the Hispanic political community behind Davis and Castro or, if Castro takes a pass, behind a similar candidate I will discuss later.
However, Hispanics are only part of the equation. The rise of women in what I have written about as the “female century” has come to Texas. I was a booster of Davis well before her famous filibuster and, I promise, this show has only begun as more Texans and Americans learn more about this woman of extraordinary courage and talent.
Do not underestimate the degree that Davis is a tough lady and a smart cookie. As smoothie Democrats from other states try to use her to raise money for purposes other than electing Texas Democrats, trust me, Wendy will do the Lone Star State proud.
Here is the math: For Texas to go blue, Texas Democrats need to maintain the traditional Texas Democratic vote and add more registration, enthusiasm and turnout from three groups to get them to 50 percent plus 1. They are Hispanics, women, and young voters.
With powerful and compelling statewide candidates such as Davis, Castro and other prominent Democrats to be named later, it is not hard to envision a nice bump above the average Texas Democratic vote. Texas Republicans are not very shrewd if they think the smart move is to continue their war against women by forcing the closure of health clinics that serve women and brazenly attacking voting rights for Hispanic Texans while their GOP friends in Washington declare blood feuds against fair immigration.
Meanwhile, my guess is that Team Clinton, led by Hillary, will go all-in to help Davis if she runs. I know some major Clinton donors who tell me privately (for now) that they have checkbook in hand.
The smart move for Team Obama, and the president himself, would be to go privately all-in for Davis, raising big money and extending her an open door, for any purpose, for the duration of the Obama presidency.
As a special bonus — regarding certain Democratic operatives who like the good life, to put it diplomatically — imagine how much money they can make if (and only if) Wendy goes all-in and runs, and Obama joins the Clintons and goes all-in with her to raise the money to win.
Friday, 12 July 2013